AOV Mirage

A calculator in six inputs

"AOV is up 7% during the promo" is the Day-7 victory lap. Net AOV is the number six weeks later, after the return wave hits. They are not the same number — and the gap is what makes a promo either a win or a mirage.

Your scenario

Orders during promo week The total number of orders placed during the promotional period. Only these orders are subject to the return rates below. 1,000
Gross AOV (Day 7) Revenue per order at order time, before any returns or refunds settle. This is the number in your Day-7 post-promo report. €88.00
Non-promo baseline AOV Your average order value in a typical non-promo week. This is the benchmark that makes "AOV is up" meaningful — or meaningless. €82.00

Return wave (settles Day 30–45)

Full refund rate Percentage of promo orders that come back as full refunds — the entire order value is reversed. Promo-driven orders tend to have higher full-return rates than baseline orders. 8%
Partial refund rate Percentage of promo orders that come back as partial refunds — one item returned, rest kept. These erode net revenue without eliminating the order entirely. 4%
Avg partial refund amount The average value refunded per partial-return order. This is the per-order euro amount reversed, not a percentage of the order total. €30

The math

Gross · Day 7 Return wave Net · Day 45
Revenue €88,000 −€8,240 €79,760
Orders returned 80 full · 40 partial — 120 —
AOV €88.00 Day 7 headline — €79.76 Day 45 reality
vs baseline non-promo €82.00 +€6.00 — −€2.24

AOV journey

Baseline AOV non-promo reference
€82.00
Gross AOV Day 7 · +€6.00 vs baseline
€88.00
Net AOV Day 45 · −€2.24 vs baseline
€79.76
The Day-7 report showed +7.3% AOV vs baseline — a win. Six weeks later, returns pulled net AOV to €79.76, €2.24 below the non-promo baseline of €82.00. The victory lap was a mirage: the promo lowered net AOV.
Methodology & formulas

Gross AOV is revenue per order at order time — the number in your Day-7 post-promo email. Net AOV is revenue per order after returns settle, typically 30–45 days later.

Gross revenue  =  orders × gross AOV
               =  1,000 × €88.00  =  €88,000

Full refund value   =  full-return orders × gross AOV
                    =  80 × €88.00         =  €7,040

Partial refund value =  partial-return orders × avg partial amt
                     =  40 × €30            =  €1,200

Total refunds        =  €7,040 + €1,200     =  €8,240

Net revenue  =  gross revenue − total refunds
             =  €88,000 − €8,240  =  €79,760

Net AOV  =  net revenue ÷ orders
         =  €79,760 ÷ 1,000  =  €79.76

vs baseline:  €79.76 − €82.00  =  −€2.24  ← below baseline

The mirage condition is when gross AOV ≥ baseline AND net AOV < baseline. The promo created an apparent win that the return wave erased — and then some.

Return rates for promo-driven orders are typically higher than baseline because: (1) customers buy more speculatively when prices are discounted, and (2) bundled or multi-unit orders have higher item-level return rates.

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